Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-23 1.722333 1.793915 1.868822 1.953419 2.046758 2.147134 2.263976
2025-11-30 1.645060 1.739291 1.841267 1.960838 2.098572 2.254042 2.445507
2025-12-07 1.558240 1.662833 1.778433 1.917317 2.082000 2.274306 2.521170
2025-12-14 1.505506 1.619347 1.747484 1.904785 2.096290 2.327171 2.635860
2025-12-21 1.457605 1.577725 1.714922 1.886340 2.099690 2.364087 2.730704
2025-12-28 1.435888 1.564729 1.714229 1.904677 2.147678 2.458581 2.909041
2026-01-04 1.421946 1.559611 1.721815 1.932449 2.208063 2.572654 3.126896
2026-01-11 1.393819 1.535844 1.705040 1.927854 2.224940 2.628134 3.265093
2026-01-18 1.372118 1.518757 1.695345 1.931159 2.251621 2.698259 3.433729
2026-01-25 1.335899 1.482444 1.660007 1.899031 2.227487 2.692576 3.478215
2026-02-01 1.311935 1.460457 1.641795 1.888370 2.232017 2.728673 3.596553
2026-02-08 1.290058 1.440304 1.625054 1.878649 2.236849 2.764897 3.719431
2026-02-15 1.268288 1.420253 1.608490 1.869423 2.243238 2.806173 3.862868
2026-02-22 1.255540 1.411062 1.605416 1.878083 2.275620 2.890685 4.104231
2026-03-01 1.224267 1.377420 1.569329 1.839558 2.235686 2.853809 4.093288
2026-03-08 1.205803 1.359713 1.553649 1.828830 2.236843 2.885132 4.231730
2026-03-15 1.186039 1.339832 1.534485 1.812389 2.228270 2.898984 4.334515
2026-03-22 1.180334 1.337898 1.539002 1.829498 2.272039 3.006986 4.679707
2026-03-29 1.178116 1.340336 1.549306 1.855131 2.330552 3.147644 5.155569
2026-04-05 1.165111 1.328277 1.539555 1.851048 2.340934 3.200044 5.414679
2026-04-12 1.155288 1.320153 1.534886 1.854154 2.363055 3.277013 5.777177
2026-04-19 1.134374 1.296932 1.508940 1.824758 2.329699 3.241540 5.771552
2026-04-26 1.121110 1.283637 1.496387 1.815006 2.328832 3.271333 5.997060